Cowboys analytics roundup: This season is over, but the future looks bright

The Cowboys aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they effectively are. It’s even probable that they’ll be officially eliminated before they take the field for their next game. That means the rest of the season is going to consist of evaluations for the players and coaches.

It may seem weird to say given the circumstances, but the Cowboys look to have a bright future. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at the advanced data to see what this team really is right now.

The Cowboys saw a minimal decline in their DVOA grade but remained 19th in total team efficiency. If the season ended today, only one team below them in overall DVOA would make the playoffs. In effect, the Cowboys are the cut-off line between being a playoff contender and not.

That’s a bad position to be in for 2025, but not entirely terrible for 2026 and beyond. And for how much skepticism there was when Brian Schottenheimer was first named head coach, there seems to be considerably more optimism in him, if not the entire coaching staff.

Shifting to our EPA-based team tiers, the story hasn’t changed for Dallas: great offense, terrible defense. They’re in the same tier as the 49ers, Bears, Steelers, and Chargers, all of whom are strong contenders for the postseason. Even slightly better defensive efficiency would have changed things dramatically.

Again, that’s a positive for the future. Defensive production is notoriously unstable, often changing in significant ways from year to year. A coordinator change would obviously impact that even more. The likelihood that Dallas is better on defense next year is statistically quite high.

Offense

One reason why there’s been more optimism around Schottenheimer is due to the job he’s done calling plays. The Cowboys have consistently been a top 10 unit all season long, even when they’ve had bad games. They’ve also been equally efficient through the air and on the ground.

Even in this last game, against the Vikings, they did well relative to the opposition. Minnesota’s defense is giving up -0.036 EPA/play this year, ninth-best in the league. Schottenheimer and the Cowboys averaged 0.103 EPA/play this past week; only three other offenses had posted a positive EPA/play against the Vikings this year.

A big reason for the Cowboys’ offensive success is Dak Prescott, who’s played at an MVP level. Unfortunately, he won’t get any votes for the award without his team reaching the postseason, but Prescott does have a very real shot at the league’s passing yards crown. He has 219 more yards than current runner-up Matthew Stafford; Jared Goff is roughly 100 yards behind Stafford, and fourth place currently belongs to Patrick Mahomes, whose season is over.

MVP trophy or not, Prescott’s performance this season is a big deal for Dallas. At 32 years old and coming off yet another season-ending injury, nobody really knew what to expect from Prescott. But he clearly hasn’t lost a step, feels very comfortable in Schottenheimer’s system, and should have every resource at his availability for another big year in 2026.

Another big piece of the offensive success is offensive coordinator Klayton Adams, who brought the Cowboys’ run game into the modern world. Javonte Williams hit 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career and the Cowboys have been inside the top five in adjusted line yards for most of the season, highlighting how good the run game has been at creating open rushing lanes.

Offensive line coach Conor Riley has also done an impressive job. Cooper Beebe took a huge step this year – only three starting centers have given up fewer pressures, and he has yet to allow a sack – while Tyler Booker is bursting with potential. And while the offensive line as a whole has been declining in terms of pressures allowed, they’ve kept Prescott from getting sacked too many times despite having 10 different players start at least one game so far this year.

Defense

Okay, let’s get to the bad: the entire defense. Ironically, Dallas moved up a spot in defensive DVOA rankings this week despite their actual grade declining. That’s because the Jets had such a total defensive meltdown that they fired their defensive coordinator afterwards. Imagine that.

Not much has been good for the Dallas defense. They can’t rush the passer consistently, they can’t play zone or man coverage consistently, and they can’t stop the run. Their pressure rate jumps 11% when they blitz, but they’re also giving up considerably more through the air when they blitz. It’s a Catch 22: nothing works for Matt Eberflus.

Here’s a depressing statistic: the Cowboys have just two defenders from this year with a passer rating allowed under 100. One is Reddy Steward, whose 99.0 rating just barely makes the cut-off, and the other is Damone Clark, who saw just seven targets before being released.

To end on a positive note, though, there’s real potential here. DaRon Bland and Shavon Revel combined to hold Justin Jefferson to just one catch on five targets, with each registering a breakup. They both have promise, and a defensive scheme that plays more to their actual skill sets may help unlock this secondary.