The keys to the Seahawks vs Rams huge one in the rain, wind--and the pick

Biggest game of the year. Biggest game yet for Sam Darnold with his Seahawks.

What’s Seattle’s quarterback doing to prepare best for the Los Angeles Rams and this NFC West Battle Royale Thursday night at Lumen Field for the division lead and inside track to the top seed plus bye in next month’s conference playoffs?

Sleeping.

“To be honest, I’m not up all-night studying,” Darnold said of the three days between the Seahawks’ win over Indianapolis and this showdown between two 11-3 teams. “It’s making sure that I get my sleep, get my recovery in, because it is such a short week.”

There could be a lot for Darnold to study, in an effort to spring surprises on the Rams.

Yet Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak have spent this week balancing installing new plays in the game plan the Rams haven’t seen on film this season versus not overloading Seattle’s players with too much. The coaches want their Seahawks to play fast, to not think about too much new they crammed into the players’ heads Monday into Thursday this week. The Seahawks — and the Rams, for that matter — have been practicing plays for weeks if not months they’ve yet to use in a game, to surprise their opponent with new looks in the first Thursday night in NFL history feature two teams with 11 or more wins.

That’s the first key to this game: Be new, but while playing fast.

“I think you could use it to your advantage,” Macdonald said of the short week. “If you’re decisive in how you want to operate and they’re the right decisions, I think that’ll help you. Sometimes, it might be behind the 8-ball.

“A kick in the butt doesn’t necessarily hurt you.”

So what’s the new that will be key Thursday night?

Look for Macdonald to use the combination of rookie Nick Emmanwori at all three levels of the defense with Pro Bowl cornerback Devon Witherspoon blitzing more and Seattle’s recent three-cornerback rotation with Riq Woolen and Josh Jobe giving the Seahawks new personnel options against coach Sean McVay’s Rams offense.

No team in the league plays in “13” personnel — one running back, three tight ends — more than McVay’s Rams, 25% of the time; the league average is 5%. No team played the Rams’ “13” personnel with nickel and an extra, fifth defensive back more than the Seahawks did last month in L.A.’s 21-19 home win.

Rams No. 2 wide receiver Davante Adams, the NFL’s leader with 14 touchdown receptions, is doubtful to play because of an injured hamstring. That may lead McVay to even more “13” personnel sets.

The Rams average 6.1 yards per play in their three-tight ends formations this season. Against Macdonald’s Seahawks last month L.A. got just 2.7 yards in McVay’s “13” personnel.

In all formations, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had by one measure the worst game of his 17-year NFL career last month against Seattle. His expected points added (EPA) passing in that game was the lowest of his career.

McVay’s offense had its lowest EPA in two seasons last month against Macdonald’s Seahawks defense. Can Seattle do it again?

2nd key: The wind, and the run

The weather is forecast to be conducive to running over throwing the ball: A 50% chance of rain with winds 15 mph gusting toward 35 mph around the 5:15 p.m. kickoff, then throughout the game.

“Yeah, it’ll factor into some of the decisions that we make,” Macdonald said, grinning to conceal exactly which ones.

Kubiak has shown he’s going to run the ball, regardless of the results. Seattle gained just 49 yards last week against the Colts, a top-10 run defense in the NFL. Yet the Seahawks ran it 22 times. No team in the league comes close to running it as often as Seattle’s 48% of all offensive plays. Yet the Seahawks are fifth-to-last with just 3.9 yards per rush.

Last week, they ran for a season low 2.3 yards per carry against Indianapolis.

The Rams are ninth in the league in rushing defense.

“I think it’s got to improve pretty quick,” Kubiak said of the Seahawks running game.

“We’ve got to move the ball better on the ground. We’ve got to coach better. We’ve got to block better. We’ve got to help the operation by being a more balanced team.”

Expect a pointed effort by Kubiak handing the ball to lead back Kenneth Walker early and often. Walker had 2.4 yards per rush in the last two games (19 carries, 46 yards). He’s had defenders standing waiting for him in the backfield immediately as he receives handoffs from Darnold.

Thursday, Walker is going to be running behind a new left tackle: Josh Jones is making his first Seattle start, for injured Charles Cross.

3rd key: Seven, not three

The Seahawks drove inside the Rams’ 20-yard line four times in that November game in Inglewood, California. They got just one touchdown out of those four red-zone trips.

Last week against the Colts the Seahawks were 0 for 2 scoring TDs in the red zone. Seattle’s offensive moved inside the Indianapolis 35 four times. Yet the only offense was a team-record six field goals by Jason Myers in the 18-16 escape win.

For the season, the Seahawks are in the bottom half of the NFL, 17th in the 32-team league, in red-zone TD percentage (57.5%). They’ve been just 37.5% the last three weeks, the fourth-worst in the NFL in that span.

Minimize penalties. Eliminate negative plays. And of course be far better than the career-high four interceptions Darnold threw in the last game against the Rams, handing L.A. two of their three touchdowns.

The Seahawks must score touchdowns, seven points, instead of field goals when they get close against L.A.

“Again, the last few games moving the ball up and down the field, I feel like we’ve been solid,” Darnold said. “Third downs can improve a little bit— or a lot, I think I should say. Then in the red zone, it’s a matter of keeping the ball moving forward.

“When you get in those second and long, third and longs, that makes it hard to convert. So, just keeping the ball moving forward, not only in the red zone, but also in the field, as well.”

The pick

Yes, this is one of the biggest regular-season games Seattle’s played in a minute. The winner is two more wins from the NFC West title and home-field plus a bye in the conference playoffs, meaning two home postseason games from the Super Bowl. The loser is headed to the fifth seed, and needing to win three road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl.

Yet the Seahawks coach doesn’t see it in that lens.

“Look, I get it. It’s your job to put all the meaning behind it,” Macdonald said.

“It’s our job to go play great football.

“It’s all good, and I get it. It’s exciting. But every game’s exciting.” Darnold doesn’t turn the ball over. Walker gets (some) more than he’s gotten recently on the ground. Macdonald’s defense again stymies McVay’s offense with new tricks.

Seahawks 20, Rams 17