First place in the NFC North is on the line Saturday night.
The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers might be going in different directions. Everyone might realize it after Saturday night.
The Bears have played much better the past three weeks, perhaps due to the natural progression of picking up Ben Johnson's scheme. That included a very competitive loss at Green Bay two weeks ago. Maybe if that game was in Chicago, it would have gone the other way. Or if the Packers didn't have their best player.
Green Bay has a problem that will linger the rest of its season. The Packers won't be the same without Micah Parsons, who is out for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. They can't replace his 12.5 sacks or the attention that other offenses pay to him. Opponents had to game plan around a talent like Parsons, and that's no longer the case. Green Bay doesn't have a difference maker anywhere near Parsons' level. The Packers are also without other key players due to season-ending injuries, like tight end Tucker Kraft, offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt. That's a lot to lose.
With Parsons, the Packers were a much better bet to win the NFC North. It was also easier to picture it a month ago. Through the first two-thirds of the season the Bears built a good record by beating bad teams and winning a lot of close games. Something had to change to sustain their record, and it has. The Bears beat the Eagles, almost beat the Packers and then destroyed the Browns 31-3 in the type of blowout they weren't getting earlier in the season. They're getting better, and they had already banked a lot of wins.
The Bears are 1-point underdogs for Saturday night's showdown against the Packers, but that seems to be based on what the teams were weeks ago. Or even a week ago. The Bears are the pick, and a win should vault them to a division title.
Here are the rest of the picks for Week 16 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM:
Seahawks (-1.5) over Rams
This might be the best matchup of the NFL's regular season. It's not often you see the two best teams in football (sorry Broncos, or whoever else thinks they're in the top two) meet up with so much on the line. The Super Bowl picture changes based on who wins and gets the inside track to the NFC's No. 1 seed. In the first meeting the Rams won 21-19, and Sam Darnold's four interceptions were a big reason. If Darnold threw only three interceptions Seattle probably wins that game on the road. The Rams have baffled Darnold over the last two seasons, but it's (probably) not wise to expect a similar meltdown again. And Davante Adams being listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury is a big issue for the Rams.
Commanders (+6.5) over Eagles
The Eagles aren't completely fixed. They just happened to face the Raiders last week. The last time the Commanders had a played in a standalone game at home, they almost beat the Broncos. They followed that up with a terrible game at Minnesota, but did bounce back to beat the Giants. Who knows what we'll get out of Washington, but it also wouldn't be a surprise to see the Eagles offense struggle again now that they're facing someone other than Las Vegas.
Browns (+10) over Bills
It's getting harder to back double-digit underdogs. Four of five didn't cover last week. Cleveland hasn't covered the spread in any of its last three games. Still, the Bills might not be the dominant team the market portrays. They should have lost to the Bengals at home two weeks ago, before Christian Benford's incredible pick-6. They had to dig out of a 21-0 hole against the Patriots last week. It's always hard to fade Josh Allen, but 10 points is still a lot in the NFL.
Chargers (+2.5) over Cowboys
Your strange spread of the week. Unless you're Jerry Jones, you've realized for a while the Cowboys are a mediocre team. They're not bad. But they're certainly not good. The Chargers aren't without some flaws, but they're 10-4 and for good reason. Is there a letdown after a big win at Kansas City, especially with a very small chance of winning the division? Perhaps. But we all know who the better team is in this game.
Chiefs (-3) over Titans
This could be a massive flat spot for the Chiefs. They haven't played a game after being eliminated from the playoff race since before Patrick Mahomes was drafted. And Mahomes is obviously out. But the Titans are horrible. Their two wins have come by three combined points. As long as the Chiefs are reasonably interested in playing, they should win.
Dolphins (+4) over Bengals
If you've seen Tua Tagovailoa play lately, you won't downgrade the Dolphins too much as they turn to Quinn Ewers. Even as the Dolphins had a winning streak, Tagovailoa was simply a game manager. Maybe the Dolphins rally around Ewers for at least one game. The Bengals, on the other hand, looked disengaged in a lifeless 24-0 loss last week to the Ravens.
Saints (-4.5) over Jets
It'll be Brady Cook again for the Jets on Sunday, and while it could have been much worse for him last week in his first career start, it wasn't good either. The Jets defense has cratered as well in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars. The Saints aren't good but they're playing hard, and that should be enough against a Jets team that will have an ugly finish to this season.
Vikings (-3) over Giants
Is J.J. McCarthy turning a corner? Maybe. He has a 120.3 passer rating in his last two games, after a 57.9 rating in his first six. On the other side, it's hard to say the Giants are tanking. Coaches and players don't care about a team's draft position. But as the Giants lost to the similarly bad Commanders at home last week, it was hard to not consider that the Giants would have the No. 1 pick of the NFL Draft if the season ended now. It's probably just a case of a terrible team being able to lose to anyone. They can lose to the Vikings too.
Buccaneers (-3) over Saints
Do you want to take the team that just blew a 14-point lead and lost at home to the Falcons, or the one that blew a 10-point lead and got swept by the Saints? One of these teams will make the playoffs, though we might be better off if they pulled a Notre Dame and opted out. The Buccaneers have a few days extra rest, they are the better team and maybe coach Todd Bowles' rant will spark something. It's a game with big stakes but neither team is sprinting to the finish line.
Broncos (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars still have a 7.6% chance at the No. 1 seed, according to DVOA. They'd have to beat the Broncos on Sunday, and Jacksonville does look like they're getting better late in the season. Still, the Broncos have been underrated all season and this spread is another example. So was last week, when the Broncos were home underdogs but won anyway. The NFL's only 12-2 team is better than the betting market apparently thinks.
Falcons (-3) over Cardinals
The Cardinals are one of those teams that is playing like they're hoping for the season to end. The Falcons aren't great, but they've shown more life lately than Arizona. Which isn't saying much.
Lions (-7) over Steelers
The Lions are predictable. Since the beginning of October they have alternated wins and losses, never putting together a winning or losing streak of two games. Last week they lost to the Rams. You know what that means.
Texans (-14.5) over Raiders
You won't see many picks in this space on favorites laying more than 14 points. But the thought of taking the Raiders against the best defense in the NFL is not enticing at all.
Patriots (+3) over Ravens
The Ravens had a nice win over the Bengals last week, and oddsmakers have never given up on them even when they weren't playing well. That's why a 7-7 team is favored by a field goal over an 11-3 team. The Patriots had a tough loss last week, but sometimes Josh Allen is just going to beat you. I need to see it at least one more time from the Ravens before believing they're back, or anything close to it.
Colts (+6.5) over 49ers
We saw a heck of an effort by the Colts last week in almost upsetting the Seahawks. It's worth asking if they can replicate that two weeks in a row, especially after a crushing defeat. The 49ers defense isn't great, and they haven't beaten a team with a winning record since Week 5 when they defeated the Rams on a Thursday night. The Colts aren't dead yet, and on Monday night we'll get another strong effort.
Last week: 6-10
Season to date: 112-108-6
Category: General Sports
