Searching for the next Phil Maton

The Cardinals mostly chose to sit out doing anything last offseason, but they did do one thing. They signed Phil Maton in the middle of spring training to a 1 year, $2 million deal. He pitched well enough that, at the deadline, they received left-handed starting pitching prospect Mason Molina, right-handed reliever Skyler Hales, and international bonus pool money. Honestly, it would have felt like a win in March if they just got the bonus pool money.

Presumably, the Cardinals will try to do something similar this offseason. Sign an ignored relief pitcher for peanuts, hope they pitch about as well as Maton did, and then trade them at the deadline. It probably won’t be as cheap as Maton nor work as well in terms of the deadline return, but the basic principle can be repeated. There’s always a few relievers who get lost in the shuffle who might have a career year in their future.

Let’s find him. This won’t so much be me looking for a carbon copy of Maton as it looking for relievers I see slipping through the cracks. Maton will be hard to duplicate. It’s a little mystifying how exactly the Cardinals got him for $2 million. He has a 26.7 K% for his career with a decent walk rate and decent groundball rate. His career numbers are thoroughly mediocre, but I would think a mediocre reliever would cost more money than that. And the K rate, though it exploded in St. Louis, seemingly suggested a little upside. Obviously I am speaking in hindsight.

So let’s set some parameters for how to qualify for my list. I am essentially ignoring any relief pitcher who I consider “too good.” A prime example is Seranthony Dominguez, a pitcher who has been valued as an elite reliever despite inconsistency, and who had a 30.3 K% and 3.16 ERA last year. I just don’t feel like he’s going to slip through the cracks. Another essential element of Maton was his relatively young age – just 32 – so anybody 35 or older, I am ignoring as well. Early 30s is the age range I’m looking for. I am also looking for a pretty solid K rate because if you’re not striking out guys as a reliever, the upside is just not there. These three factors are really it.

Ian Hamilton

Career Stats: 3.59 ERA/3.64 FIP/3.88 xFIP, 25.5 K%, 1.5 career fWAR

Hamilton illustrates one part of why a direct Maton comp is hard – Maton was mostly healthy. Hamilton has been far from it. Once, Hamilton was a minor prospect as a pure reliever – in 2018 as a 23-year-old, Hamilton had a 1.71 ERA in AA, 1.74 ERA in AAA, and 8 not particularly impressive innings in the majors. But he spent the next few years struggling to stay healthy, jumping from the White Sox to Twins to Guardians to Yankees. He finally stuck on the Yankees when he was fairly dominant as a multi-inning reliever back in 2023. Injuries got to him again in 2024 though he was still effective. This past year, he was mostly healthy but couldn’t stop walking guys.

Other upside of Hamilton? He still has three years of team control. He’ll be 31 next season and honestly I’m not convinced he’s nontendered in some other organizations after his 2025. It wasn’t great, but a 4.28 ERA with a 4.39 FIP after two good seasons – you might bring him back expecting a bounceback. His Steamer is a perfectly acceptable 3.82 ERA and 3.95 FIP – probably not very far off Maton’s projection. I can’t imagine he’ll get more than one year or that he’ll cost much money.

Josh Sborz

Career Stats: 4.96 ERA/3.95 FIP/3.76 xFIP, 27.7 K%, 1.3 career fWAR

Sborz actually has future career year written all over him. His advanced stats have been very good the last three seasons that he’s pitched. It hasn’t translated to ERA. He’s also thrown the equivalent of less than a 1/2 season of a starting pitcher in those three seasons. He also didn’t pitch in the majors last season, trying to recover from debridement surgery. He didn’t pitch well in the rehab games, but it was also rehab. I don’t even think you’d have to guarantee him an MLB deal honestly.

Drew Smith

Career Stats: 3.48 ERA/4.36 FIP/4.59 xFIP, 24.5 K%, 0.6 career fWAR

It says something that the kind of pitcher that Maton represents has produced two pitchers so far who did not pitch in the previous season. An easy way to get a cheap reliever: find a reliever who didn’t pitch due to an injury. Smith certainly qualifies. He didn’t have a great 2023, but if he were to repeat either his 2022 season or 2024 season (but with better health), then I would be very happy with a Drew Smith signing. He had at least a 28 K% in both seasons. He does have a bit of a flyball problem, but that may not be a big issue playing half his games at Busch.

Joey Lucchesi

Career Stats: 4.07 ERA/4.15 FIP/4.15 xFIP, 22.9 K%, 4.7 career fWAR

Lucchesi in his current state doesn’t really strike hitters out and his projection doesn’t think he will, so I’m breaking one of my three requirements. But he has struck people out in the past and as a starting pitcher. You’re telling me a guy who struck out 26.5% of hitters back in 2018 when throwing 130 innings doesn’t have a 25% K rate in him somewhere as a reliever? On top of that, he was still pretty solid last season, thanks to a 53 GB%. It was his first year as a full-time reliever and he did strike out 26% of guys in AAA, so honestly I do think there’s some upside here.

Trent Thornton

Career Stats: 4.38 ERA/4.46 FIP/4.48 xFIP, 22.1 K%, 1.9 career fWAR

As you can probably guess, I’m not looking at Thornton’s career numbers nor his 2025 when putting him on this list. His 2025 season wasn’t good and it ended when he tore his Achilles in July. No I’m looking at his 2024, when he threw 72 innings, struck out 26% of batters and had a 3.61 ERA with comparable advanced metrics. If he has that season again, I think he would get something at the deadline.

Jacob Webb

Career Stats: 2.99 ERA/4.07 FIP/4.63 xFIP, 23 K%, 1.4 career fWAR

Of all the pitchers I’ve listed, Webb fits the spirit of Phil Maton the most. But he was never as good as Maton, although it is possible has has some secret sauce that allows him to have a significantly better ERA than his advanced stats suggest. But if you have any doubt that teams pay attention to advanced stats more than ERA, look no further than this guy. He had a 3.02 ERA with Baltimore, got DFA’d after the season, then got paid $1.25 million by the Rangers. So he can be had for cheap and he might have a great ERA, doesn’t really seem like he fits the spirit of getting value at the deadline without becoming a better pitcher by advanced stats.

Evan Phillips

Career Stats: 3.36 ERA/3.36 FIP/3.65 xFIP, 27.9 K%, 4.7 career fWAR

I’m going to make my best pitch for Evan Phillips who doesn’t really fit the spirit of this post at all, except that he is potentially undervalued. He has a good reason to be undervalued: he had Tommy John surgery after his season ended in May. If the Cardinals trade Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado and they’re supposed to spend their lost salaries, where are they going to spend that money? One could certainly argue that money would be better spent than a hurt reliever and they’d be right, but if they’re not going to spend it on a Kyle Tucker or any interesting free agent, there are very limited ways to spend money.

So maybe give Phillips a two-year deal, or one year with an option, or maybe a vested player option if that’s a thing, see if he can become the Evan Phillips he was and then trade him. Maybe that’s not the 2026 deadline – hence a deal that leaves open the possibility of him returning in 2027. But the Evan Phillips who existed prior to getting hurt would get a very nice return in a trade – and he would probably return something just based on reputation even if he’s shaky. Cardinals can pick up the entire tab and this is another version of the Cardinals essentially buying a prospect or multiple prospects in the best case. There’s my pitch.