Center Field in 2026

Background:  The Outfield in 2025.

Are all the outfield positions contributing to winning games?  Let’s compare the 2025 Wins Above Average (WAA) for center field with the two corner positions.  Data from Baseball Reference.

While there was a decline in both, the decline was larger in center field, where Wins Above Average (WAA) broke through zero, falling to significantly below average.

Who is currently the center fielder for the Diamondbacks?   The primary center fielder was Alek Thomas, except for a large portion of 2024 lost due to injuries. 

His offensive performance fell in his first season back after his injury.  Did he improve by the end of the season?  Yes, after the first two months of 2025, my view is that his offense was back closer to 100%. Most encouraging was his drop in ground balls (from 60.8% in 2024 to 53.6% in 2025). Nevertheless, his offensive performance was near league average.

He is capable of great defense in center field (7 OAA in 2022 and 5 OAA in 2023). In 2025, his defense in center field was average (zero OAA).

Last season, Alek Thomas’s offense and defense were average. The Diamondbacks have other players who could play center field.

Possible Competition in Spring Training.

Perhaps several players will compete to play center field on opening day.  One possibility is that Alek Thomas continues to improve on his 2025 performance (offense and defense).  In that case, he could be the opening day center fielder.  Who else could possibly take the position?

Either Blaze Alexander or Jordan Lawlar could move from third base to center field.  Perhaps Blaze Alexander could be the opening day third baseman and Jordan Lawlar could be the opening day center fielder.  Jordan Lawlar is two years younger than Thomas. His sprint speed of 29.7 feet per second is elite. Last season he was the Diamondbacks top prospect with a Future Value of 60 per FanGraphs. My projection is that he would have a higher rate of home runs than all the internal candidates.

Ryan Waldschmidt could be promoted from AA (skipping AAA) to play center field on opening day.  Despite that he has not yet played at the AAA level, he has my highest projected OBP of all the candidates. He is more than two years younger than Alek Thomas. Recently, Baseball America ranked him as the top prospect of the Diamondbacks.

[Ryan Walschmidt] “I like what I’ve seen so far. … He’s athletic. He’s got a really good idea of where he’s at when he’s standing in the box, and I just like the comments. I like the conversation. I like the baseball mind.” — Torey Lovullo, March 2025

Two bench players (2025) could play center field (Jorge Barrosa and Jake McCarthy).  Although my projected home runs and OBP for them are lower than Thomas, a breakout season could happen for either of them.

Tommy Troy could be promoted from AAA to play center field.  He is almost two years younger than Thomas. He has a Future Value of 45 per FanGraphs. Mike Hazen said Troy plays second base and center field. Unless Marte is traded, it’s more likely that he will play center field.

Perhaps the Diamondbacks will acquire an inexpensive player to compete for the center field position.  One example is JJ Bleday.  Although he is now a free agent, MLBTR projected his arbitration salary would have been an (affordable) $2.2 Million. In his first season playing full-time in the Majors (159 games in 2024) his OPS+ was 120 and his defense could have been average (zero OAA) except for his weakness in fielding balls in front of him, which might be correctable. Last season was a slump. My view is that Mike Hazen is on the lookout for Majors-ready players who suffer a sophmore slump (not exactly Bleday’s situation although it is similar).

My Predicted Offense by the Candidates.

My view is that there is a big need is to replace home runs that would Eugenio Suarez would have hit.  For more explanation see this AZ Snake Pit article.

Another important need is getting more runners on base. For each candidate, let’s predict home runs and On-Base-Percent (OBP) for 2026 (assuming an equal number of PAs).

My approach was eclectic.  Factors included were 2025 performance in Majors, 2025 performance in minors, and sometimes predicting bounce back.  One example is that I looked an June through October for Alek Thomas.  My intention is that the table has an optimistic bias for all the candidates. 

The following table shows my predicted home runs and OBP for each of the candidates.  Because no player is clearly the best (and their defensive prowess in center field is another uncertain factor), perhaps spring training will be a very close competition to see who is most ready to play center field.  Because my predictions are close, because uncertainty in their defensive skills and because of the possibility that the Diamondbacks will acquire a center fielder from outside the organization, it is not possible to predict the opening day center fielder.

Summary.

Last season, the Diamondbacks underperformed in center field, with negative 1.9 wins above average. Alek Thomas was the primary center fielder. Although his performance improved compared to the previous season, he was about league average for offense and defense.

If Alek Thomas demonstrated improvement in spring training, he could be the opening day center fielder. Otherwise, there are several possible candidates.

• Either Blaze Alexander or Jordan Lawlar could move from third base to center field. Last season Lawlar was the Diamondbacks top prospect with a Future Value of 60 per FanGraphs. My projection is that he would have a higher rate of home runs than all the internal candidates.
• Ryan Waldschmidt could be promoted from AA to play center field. Recently, Baseball America ranked him as the top prospect of the Diamondbacks. My projection is that he would have the highest OBP of all the candidates.
• Two bench players could play center field (Jorge Barrosa and Jake McCarthy).  Although my projected home runs and OBP for them are lower than Thomas, a breakout season could happen for either of them.
• Tommy Troy could be promoted from AAA to play center field.  Mike Hazen said Troy plays second base and center field.

Perhaps the Diamondbacks will acquire an affordable player to compete for the center field position.  One example is JJ Bleday. Although last season his OPS+ slumped, perhaps he will bounce back as a Diamondback. Also, his defense could be better.