10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 15: Kyle Pitts rises, Justin Jefferson falls

Week 15 is in the books and we're headed to the fantasy football semifinals. With the championship round on deck, here are the 10 storylines you need to know going into Week 16.

Kyle Pitts’ Historic Performance

With 11 catches for 166 yards and a trio of touchdowns, Pitts opened the fantasy football playoffs with one of the best performances by a tight end in NFL history. His 45.6 PPR points are the sixth-most for a tight end in a single game. The last time a tight end topped 45 points in a game was when Shannon Sharpe did so in 1996. Pitts was putting up solid numbers in the absence of Drake London before Week 15. Now his splits are going to look absurd.

London might return this week. I would be hesitant to go right back to Pitts if he is, but his latest performance should at least earn him more work going forward, with or without London available.

Justin Jefferson in Freefall

Speaking of splits, no player’s look worse than Jefferson in games without Carson Wentz under center. Jefferson has been held to two catches with no more than 22 yards in three straight games, two of which featured J.J. McCarthy at the helm while Max Brosmer stepped in for the other. Jefferson is averaging 8.9 PPR points per game in McCarthy and Brosmer starts.

Jefferson’s efficiency drop from 2024 to 2025 is going to be one of the largest in recent memory, especially for a player well under 30 years old. He went from averaging 2.43 yards per route run and 10.0 yards per target to 1.77 and 7.1. This isn’t entirely on Jefferson’s quarterbacks, though. It’s worth noting that Jefferson’s 47.6 percent contested catch rate and seven percent drop rate are both the second-worst marks of his career.

Cam Ward Signs of Life

It’s been a rough year for the No. 1 overall pick. The Titans are 2-12 and Ward has thrown for multiple passing touchdowns in just two weeks all year. On the right side, those are his two most recent games. Ward only threw for 287 yards in the two games combined, but the advanced numbers also show an improved quarterback. Pro Football Focus Ward charted with a 63.5 percent accurate throw rate. That mark is the sixth-best in the league over the past two weeks. He has taken one sack during that stretch, giving him the third-best pressure-to-sack rate (4.5 percent). Looking at the year as a whole, Ward has the third-worst P2S rate and sits at 22nd in accurate throw rate. His recent performances are a complete 180 from his biggest flaws over the first 13 weeks. This could just be a blip on the radar, but it’s still a promising turn of events for Ward.

Kenny Pickett is, in Fact, a Downgrade

Geno Smith is the QB31 out of 33 qualified passers in EPA per play. He missed Week 15 with shoulder and back injuries, leaving Pickett as the starter. Given that Smith was nearly the worst quarterback in the NFL as measured by EPA per play, there was at least a chance that Pickett would be an upgrade over Geno. That, of course, couldn’t have been further from the truth. Pickett ranked dead last in EPA per play in Week 15. He threw for 64 yards and was sacked four times, losing 35 yards on those plays. His net passing of 29 yards is the second-worst mark for an offense in a single game this year. Brock Bowers led the team with six catches and 28 yards. It looks like no one is going to survive the Pickett era in Vegas.

Philip Rivers Check-In

After five years of retirement, Rivers returned to the gridiron last week as the Colts’ starting quarterback. As you might have expected, Rivers stuck to checking the ball down for most of the day.

His 5.2 aDOT was the fourth-lowest mark of Week 15. On average, Rivers took 2.41 seconds to get the ball out. That was the lowest mark of the weekend. Rivers completed just 2-of-10 throws farther than five yards downfield. Alec Pierce’s run as a splash play phenom is over. Even Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren will likely struggle to get home on a weekly basis.

Weird Things Afoot in Jacksonville

Every time I watch a Jaguars game I can’t escape the feeling that Trevor Lawrence is a Pro Bowl passer whenever he targets a running back or tight end and should be in the UFL when he throws to a receiver. He tossed five touchdowns in Week 15. Four of them went to his running backs. So is he actually better when not throwing to a wide receiver?

The difference in interceptions — which directly impacts the EPA split — is almost shocking. This could, in theory, be explained by the fact that throws to running backs and, to a lesser degree, are often check-downs or screens, neither of which should be intercepted often. On the other hand, Lawrence’s 13 interceptions when targeting wide receivers leads the league. This, plus an elite screen game that goes through the Jags’ backfield, has resulted in the Jags averaging an additional .113 EPA per play when throwing to running backs and tight ends instead of receivers. That is the fifth-largest differential in the league.

Gardner Minshew Expectations

Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL in Week 15. He will miss the remainder of the season and his availability for Week 1 of the 2026 season is in doubt. Minshew will close out the year as the team’s starter. My hopes are not high for the Chiefs under Minshew. The journeyman quarterback last started for the Raiders in 2024. He made nine starts and threw for roughly 200 yards per game with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Minshew posted the second-worst EPA per play in the league. Having the sixth-worst pressure-to-sack rate certainly didn’t help. His aDOT of 6.2 was only higher than that of Tua Tagovailoa. That, however, could keep the most important Chiefs pass-catchers relevant for the remainder of the year. Rashee Rice’s aDOT of 4.9 is the fourth-lowest for a wide receiver this season. Kelce’s 7.0 aDOT isn’t low for a tight end but still makes him eligible for plenty of check-downs. Beyond those two players, I won’t be playing any Chiefs going forward.

Jameson Williams Going Sorched Earth

The Lions talked all summer about getting Jamo more involved in the offense this year. Simply put, new OC John Morton couldn’t make it happen. He was using Williams as a clear-out option to create space for other receivers. When Campbell took over play-calling duties in Week 10, he made it a point to get Williams the ball more. Williams was being targeted on 14 percent of his routes and had a 15 percent target share through nine weeks. Those numbers have jumped to 20 percent and 23 percent since Week 10.

Williams' route distribution hasn’t changed much since the switch. The routes he earns his targets on are drastically different. Pre-Campbell, Williams earned 22.9 percent of his targets on crossers, 22.9 percent on hitches, and 14.3 percent on go routes. These were his three most-targeted routes. Two of them are deep shots or faking a deep shot and sitting down on the route. Post-Campbell, his crosser rate is up to 28.9 percent, more than double any other route. Then there is a three-way tie between screens, hitches, and posts. No go routes in sight. Loads of players are fast in a straight line. Williams is dynamite with the ball in his hands and the wind at his back. Campbell is taking advantage of that in a way that Morton entirely ignored.

TreVeyon Henderson Makes it Undeniable

Even after witnessing Henderson explode in two games without Rhamondre Stevenson active, head coach Mike Vrabel refused to give him the reins. Henderson easily out-carried Stevenson in the latter’s first game back, but Vrabel went back to his old ways two weeks ago when Stevenson out-carried Henderson 12-11 in a blowout win over the Giants. Last week, the rookie made it impossible for Vrabel to keep up the shenanigans by turning 14 attempts into 148 yards and two scores. This came on the back of two touchdown runs from over 50+ yards out. Henderson is now just the third player in the Super Bowl era to have two games with more than 14 carries and over 10 yards per carry. Stevenson still operated as New England’s lead back on passing downs last week, but he only ran the ball six times. This is the type of split we should expect going forward. Henderson has earned the right to lead the way on the ground and even his stubborn coach seemingly can’t deny that anymore.

Baker Mayfield’s Continued Struggles

Mayfield rebounded slightly in Week 15, throwing for 277 yards and a pair of scores. He still tossed one interception and was sacked five times. Since Week 7, Baker Mayfield ranks 28th out of 30 quarterbacks in EPA per play. He is dead last in completion percent over expected.

He has been worse than J.J. McCarthy and Tua Tagovailoa over that stretch. Mayfield has averaged 183 yards and 1.3 touchdowns for a dismal 12.9 fantasy points per game since Week 7. PFF charts him with a 55.3 percent accurate throw rate — 31st out of 36 passers — during that stretch. Mayfield’s uncatchable throw rate of 27.9 percent is the worst in the league. He is also top-10 in sacks taken and pass-catcher drops, though his rate stats on both aren’t particularly bad. The situation hasn’t been perfect for Mayfield over the past two months. Injuries on the line and at receiver, along with some drops, have hurt him. At the end of the day, he still isn’t playing well and that is the biggest change that needs to happen in Tampa Bay to turn their season around.