Through 15 Weeks: Where are the Jets most likely to pick?

Another week. Another loss. Let’s take a look at how this impacted the Jets projected draft result.

As a reminder, we will be using the same two metrics as we have been: DAVE (FTN’s predictive metric) and ESPN’s FPI. Both are forward-looking, all-encompassing team metrics we can use to simulate the remainder of the season.

Starting with DAVE, the Jets have been getting worse. Just a few weeks ago the Jets were ranked in the bottom 10, but there was still a decent margin between them and the bottom feeders. After quite a few weeks of embarrassing play, the Jets now rank 30th. The only two teams above them are the Browns and the Raiders, two teams projected to finish with worse records. With two tough games remaining and a game this week where the Jets play the four-win Saints, DAVE simulations (25,000 runs) give the Jets an average of 0.7 wins over their final three games. If the Jets don’t beat the Saints this week, it would require a major upset in one of their next two games to beat two of the better teams in the league in the Patriots and Bills. As a result, DAVE puts them at a 3.3% chance of landing the top pick (largely unchanged from last week), but now a 70.7% chance of earning a top five pick. Both figures are well below the Titans, Raiders, and Browns, and now are roughly in-line with the Giants.

ESPN’s FPI ranks the Jets 30th. FPI simulations project them to finish with 0.8 wins on average. According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, FPI gives the Jets a 5.3% chance at the top pick and a 70.3 chance at a top-five pick:

https://x.com/SethWalder/status/2000620028031385745?s=20

Like I mentioned last week. it’s worth noting from a tiebreaker standpoint that the Jets will almost certainly pick behind Cleveland in the event of identical records. However, they would likely pick ahead of Tennessee in the event of a tied record. The Giants and Raiders Strength-of-Schedules are roughly in-line with the Jets so it’s too early to make any declarative statements on that.

From a tank perspective, the Jets will have a ton riding on their game this week against the New Orleans Saints. A loss against the Saints would make it highly unlikely they are picking outside the top-5 and would keep them mathematically alive in the race to pick #1. If they beat the Saints, they almost certainly will not be picking in the top 2 and will likely end up with a pick somewhere in the 4-7 range.

Another year, another December of watching draft boards.