Before we can attempt to predict the "next Indiana" to make the College Football Playoff, we must be willing to consider the absurd.
Before we can attempt to predict the next Indiana, we must first appreciate the absurdity, the utter improbability, of the 2024 Hoosiers making the College Football Playoff.
Indiana won three games the previous season and lost to some of the Big Ten’s worst teams. The Hoosiers, who were in their first year with coach Curt Cignetti, had only achieved nine victories twice in its history. Never before had they won 10. Oddsmakers set their over/under at 5½ victories, and the media picked them to finish 17th in the 18-team Big Ten.
The Indianapolis Star took “a pretty big leap” while predicting an 8-4 regular season for the Hoosiers. Another Big Ten newspaper of record, the Omaha World-Herald, surmised a “bowl bid is not out of the question,” while projecting 6-6.
Indiana’s accommodating schedule aided its thrill ride, but even knowing that schedule, who foresaw the Hoosiers smashing Nebraska, handling a Michigan team that later beat Alabama, and securing playoff viability at 11-1?
So, when trying to pinpoint the next Indiana, it becomes an injustice to the 2024 Hoosiers to include any preseason Top 25 team.
How to find next Indiana for College Football Playoff
Illinois attracts comparisons to the 2024 Hoosiers, as basketball-leaning Big Ten schools without a history of football greatness. But, Illinois returns most of its starters from a 10-win team. Expectations are too great and too reasonable to earmark the Illini as the next Indiana.
Like Illinois, Texas Tech could pursue the program’s first playoff appearance, but the Red Raiders don’t emulate 2024 Indiana. The Hoosiers assembled their playoff squad from the transfer portal’s bargain rack. Texas Tech launched an expensive player-buying campaign fueled by billionaire booster Cody Campbell. Hardly comparable.
After putting aside playoff hopefuls like Illinois and Texas Tech, what's left? Teams like UCLA, California and West Virginia are ultimate longshots, built from the portal's fires.
Hear me, I’m not suggesting those teams as likely playoff contenders, but, that’s sort of the point, isn’t it? The ultimate dark horse, Indiana stunningly crafted a warp-speed turnabout with the help of 31 transfers, a cocksure coach in Cignetti, and a favorable schedule, of which they took full advantage.
UCLA, Cal and West Virginia each brought in more than 30 transfers apiece. Each has an over/under of 5½ victories. That's Indiana territory.
The Bruins made one of the offseason's biggest acquisitions by plundering a quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, who’s a former five-star recruit. He started a playoff game last season for Tennessee.
UCLA, fresh off a 5-7 finish in its Big Ten debut, will endure a schedule that includes Big Ten front-runners Ohio State and Penn State, plus a non-conference tilt against Utah. Iamaleava's arrival provides hope for improvement, but it's hard to see that schedule as a recipe toward being the next Indiana.
What, then, about California? The Bears nabbed former Ohio State backup Devin Brown as a transfer quarterback. Cal, which hasn’t won more than eight games since 2008, will avoid Clemson and Miami, two ACC favorites. The schedule, though, includes six road games and a matchup with SMU, a playoff qualifier from last year. That’s enough to prevent Cal from becoming the next Indiana.
West Virginia overhauled its roster with 52 transfers after hiring Rich Rodriguez for a homecoming. It would be more appropriate to view the Mountaineers, though, through the lens of 2024 Arizona State. The Sun Devils won the Big 12 championship after the media picked them to finish last in the conference. In the unpredictable Big 12, any number of teams could ascend and claim the auto-bid entry to the playoff.
Missouri profiles as a playoff sleeper, after the media picked it to finish 12th in the SEC. The Tigers secured a fine collection of portal prizes, including former Penn State backup quarterback Beau Pribula. Missouri's accommodating schedule positions it to exceed its Vegas over/under of 7½ wins. But, the Tigers won 21 games the past two seasons. They’ve been too good recently to aptly compare to Indiana.
Would next Indiana come from Big Ten?
As I search for the next Indiana, I circle back to the Big Ten. The conference is so big that teams only play half the membership, and there’s no requirement to play a Power Four non-conference opponent. That’s a breeding ground for a fortunate schedule draw.
Consider Maryland. The Terrapins won’t play a non-conference Power Four foe, and they avoid Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon. Expectations remain low. Vegas sets the over/under at 4½ wins. Maryland likely will start several transfers after finishing 4-8 last season, and four-star freshman Malik Washington projects as the starting quarterback.
Maryland cashing in on a favorable schedule to the extent it could make the playoff sounds highly improbable. When trying to unearth an Indiana sequel, that’s the assignment. If the idea doesn’t sound absurd, then that team doesn’t count as the next Indiana.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's national college football columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College Football Playoff's next Indiana is difficult team to find
Category: General Sports
