Who loves statistics? NC State likely has certain benchmarks that they’ll be looking for this season.
Who loves statistics?
NC State likely has certain benchmarks that they’ll be looking for this season. NC State coach Dave Doeren has always pointed to turnover ratio, which last year was not always in the Wolfpack’s favor.
Here is three big picture statistics to pay attention to this season.
Run-Pass Ratio
Doeren has aired it out at times in the past, but he probably would prefer in a perfect world to run the ball around 40 times and pass the football 30 times, with a good chunk of the runs in the fourth quarter. Why? It would mean NC State is winning and are working the clock by successfully running the football.
New NC State offensive coordinator Kurt Roper isn’t a stranger to calling plays, but it has been a hot minute. The one time he was forced into doing it was the 2022 Duke’s Mayo Bowl against Maryland.
Roper stepped in when offensive coordinator Tim Beck was hired to be the head coach at Coastal Carolina. Maryland ended up winning 16-12 and then quarterback Ben Finley threw 48 passes (completing 22), and the Wolfpack tallied 18 carries for 27 yards. That was obviously an outlier of a situation.
Roper was the interim coach for Colorado for the regular season finale, falling 33-21 to California on Nov. 24, 2018. CU quarterback Steven Montez went 16-of-33 passing for 170 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions, and the Buffaloes rushed 43 times for 148 yards and a score. That is more in line with the 40-30 club.
Roper was the co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at South Carolina from 2016-17. The Gamecocks passed 397 times and rushed the football for 405 carries in 2017. The numbers were even more slanted toward the running game with 475 carries and 402 passing attempts in 2016.
Two other scenarios with Roper as the offensive coordinator includes his stint as offensive coordinator and quarterback coach at Florida in 2014 and in the same role at Duke from 2008-13.
The Gators threw 324 times, but struggled through the air with 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and 14 interceptions. However, Florida ran the ball well with 517 carries for 2,252 yards and 22 scores.
Roper’s last year at Duke featured Anthony Boone and Brandon Connette at quarterback and the duo had 472 passing attempts. However, the Blue Devils had 544 rushing attempts.
Bring Back 2017
The NC State team in 2017 could arguably been Doeren’s best team, going 9-4 and crushing Arizona State in the Sun Bowl.
Looking back at the four losses, only one game out of hand, which was the 35-14 loss at Notre Dame on Oct. 28. The three losses to South Carolina, Clemson and Wake Forest were by a combined 20 points.
What statistics went in NC State’s favor that season? Quarterback Ryan Finley threw the ball 479 times and had just six interceptions. That balanced out throwing for 17 touchdowns.
The three-headed running game of Nyheim Miller-Hines, Reggie Gallaspy and Jaylen Samuels combined for 2,021 rushing yards and a stunning 31 touchdowns.
The passing game was balanced with Samuels, Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers all catching at least 63 passes, and Stephen Louis had a sneaky good 37 receptions.
Defensively, the Wolfpack had Bradley Chubb, which meant 10 sacks and 26 tackles for loss. He had future NFL players around him, but no one who had all-conference caliber statistics. Kentavius Street was second in sacks with 3.5, and safety Shawn Boone and middle linebacker Airius Moore had three interceptions apiece.
The highlights of the special teams units included A.J. Cole averaging 43.7 yards on 54 punts, and Miller-Hines averaged 22.3 yards on kickoff returns and 12.3 yards on 11 punt returns.
The key for NC State’s 2025 team probably revolves copying the low amount of interceptions, the ability to at least tag-team a good rushing attack (unlikely for a three-headed monster), to spread the ball around to the receivers and have one player strike some fear in the pass rush.
Do Stars Matter?
Here is a good number — 38.5.
That is the On3 average team ranking for NC State’s recruiting classes from 2021-24. The class of 2025 will certainly have some contributors this season, and that was ranked No. 36 overall, so right on par.
The bulk of NC State will be from those four recruiting classes and additions from the transfer portal. The Wolfpack in those four classes added 20 four-star prospects, 12 of which are still in the program.
Some decorated former prep players arrived in the portal such as wide receivers Wesley Grimes and Noah Rogers, defensive end Joseph Adedire and outside linebacker Sterling Dixon. Rogers was a five-star prospect coming out of Rolesville (N.C.) High.
Add four more four-stars in the class of 2025, and for those that believe stars do matter, the statistics are in the Wolfpack’s favor.
2021 — 34 team ranking/six four stars
Four-star recruits: RB Jordan Poole (finished), DE Travali Price, OLB Chase Hattley (Campbell), WR Julian Gray (Liberty), Zyun Reeves (Louisiana Tech/Mississippi Valley State), MLB Caden Fordham.
2022 — 51 team ranking/three four stars
Four-star recruits: LT Jacarrius Peak, OLB Daejuan Thompson (junior college), CB Jackson Vick.
2023 — 34 team ranking/ five four stars
Four-star recruits: S Daemon Fagan, TE Javonte Vereen (UConn), CB Brandon Cisse (South Carolina), OL Darion Rivers, S Bishop Fitzgerald from juco (USC).
2024 — 28 team ranking/six four stars
Four-star recruits: WR Terrell Anderson, RB Jonathan Paylor, OLB Elijah Groves, RB Jayden Scott, OT Trent Mitchell, OT Tyler West.
Category: General Sports
