Penn State-Nevada Matchups: How big is the Nittany Lions’ edge?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State is a 44.5-point favorite at BetMGM for its season opener with Nevada on Saturday. We know that the Nittany Lions are looking to win their 115th opener all-time in their 139th season. And, we know that the program is looking for its seventh victory against a current Mountain West member. What isn’t as clear, however, is exactly who this Wolfpack team is, considering they will be coming to Beaver Stadium with 50-plus first-year players.

“Obviously getting into Nevada and Coach [Jeff] Choate, he’s done a nice job there,” Lions coach James Franklin said on Monday. “These games I think for everybody in college football now, they’re a little concerning. What I mean by that is, when you have 54 new players, it’s hard to really have a good understanding and a feel of who you’re going to play. This could be a team that could go on and have a phenomenal year. It’s hard to really project when there is that amount of turnover.”

We’ll do our best to project what we can about Nevada below, however. It’s time to break down the matchups.

When Penn State is on offense

Nevada returns just one starter on defense, and the first 11 will be made up of many players the program picked up via the transfer portal. Thomas Witte is the team’s best defensive lineman. He lines up at one tackle spot. The top names to know in the secondary are cornerback AJ Odums and safety Murvin Kenion III. Both are on one of Phil Steele’s four preseason All-Mountain West teams.

The Wolfpack will not just play a number of transfers when coordinator Kane Ioane’s defense is on the field. Some freshmen are expected to be involved, as well, per Choate this week. It makes it hard to know exactly what we’ll see on Saturday, as Franklin alluded to above. We know Penn State will have a massive talent edge. So, to us, the keys are pretty simple: Are the Lions efficient and productive with the first- and second teams in? Are missed assignments and mistakes at a minimum? And is there a big drop off from the first to second-team, second to third-team, and so on?

That’s what matters most in this game. Andy Kotelnicki’s attack will be allowed to have some proverbial breakfast balls in the opener, of course. But, this unit should glide up and down the West Shore Home turf as much as it likes.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Lions are on defense

Chubba Purdy, a journeyman college football quarterback who was once a four-star recruit and member of the Rivals300, takes over for Nevada this fall. He was a backup last season, and didn’t produce a ton of stats when he was on the field. Herschel Turner is the top running back and is a transfer. Marcus Bellon is the top returning pass catcher. And, if you want to feel old, the team’s fastest receiver is Nate Burleson II. Yes, he’s the son of Nate Burleson, the one you’re thinking of. If anyone will stretch the Penn State secondary, it’s the current junior. Finally, the Wolfpack’s five blockers are mostly transfer portal pickups.

Again, Penn State will, of course, have a talent edge here. But how will things operate in the first game of the Jim Knowles era? Will it be a little sloppy at times? Will the high number of players to potentially rotate through cause some early hiccups? Is the pass rush going to be there out of the gate? And who are the first players in after the starters once the rotations start?

Knowles’ system has, at times, been slow to start at his previous institutions. Of course, he’s probably never faced one of the lowest-ranked teams in the SP+ rankings in game one. Either way, Penn State will hurt itself more than Nevada will hurt it, we expect. But that still shouldn’t lead to too many issues.

One final thought: First-year Nevada OC David Gilbertson spent a number of seasons working under Joe Moorhead at both Oregon and Akron.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–When it comes time for punts and punt returns, we’re very curious to see how many players Penn State rotates through at both spots. Riley Thompson and Gabe Nwosu should get to work at the former. And, as many as three players could get a shot at the latter if opportunities present themselves as expected, if not more.

–Speaking of Australian punters, Nevada’s is from there as Thompson is. It signed 27-year-old Bailey Ettridge out of Pro Kick Australia this offseason.

–The Wolfpack kicker has an interesting story, too. Joe McFadden kicked at UCONN for three seasons, then got a job on Wall Street. He’s now left New York for Reno and will start for Nevada this fall.

Final word

While we may not know as much about Nevada as we do other Penn State opponents this season, we are aware that the Lions have advantages at every position on the field. That should lead to a sizable win on the scoreboard. However, the unknown may allow the Wolfpack to do a little more damage than you might expect.