The Giants won the series the last time they saw the Cubs. Indeed, they were 24-14 after winning 2 out of 3 in Chicago. Alas, since these two teams last met, the Cubs have gone 54-39 while the Giants have posted an inverted record of 39-54. In fairness, both teams are playing to their preseason […]
The Giants won the series the last time they saw the Cubs. Indeed, they were 24-14 after winning 2 out of 3 in Chicago. Alas, since these two teams last met, the Cubs have gone 54-39 while the Giants have posted an inverted record of 39-54. In fairness, both teams are playing to their preseason projections.
So, this should be a pretty straightforward domination by the Cubs, right? The Giants have been awful at home this season because they hate their fans and The City (at least, that’s my working theory) to the point that they’re underwater in Oracle Park overall (30-33) and just 8-22 in their last 30 there. The Cubs are 35-30 on the road with a +80 run differential — {Harry Caray voice} holy cow!
Their big offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker has gone just fine (.262/.375/.464 with 21 home runs), but it’s previous acquisitions like Seiya Suzuki (27 HR), Michael Busch (24 HR), and, of course, Pete Crow-Armstrong (28 HR) that make them such a threat. The lineup is in the top 10, but when you look at their averages, the only real area where they excel compared to the competition is a 20.3% strikeout rate, the fourth-lowest in MLB after Toronto, Kansas City, and San Diego. This isn’t to diminish their accomplishments or to even suggest that they’re not actually as good as their record would indicate, only that they are very good at hitting to an extent that it carries their lackluster pitching.
Their 3.77 ERA is just behind the Giants’ 3.75, but their 4.15 team FIP is near the bottom third of the sport. By wins above replacement, their team fWAR of 10.3 is just 20th, about half a win better than the White Sox’s pitching — you can’t see it but I’m wincing. The Cubs have gone just 19-16 in the second half with a +7 run differential. But the first half/second half split doesn’t tell the whole story. That Giants series back in May was their only real speed bump through May. They, like the Giants, were sort of off to a hot start (36-22 through May 31st) and since June 1st, they’re just so-so (40-33). It’s fair to say that as good as they’ve hit, that’s been the main thing keeping their postseason run going.
This will be the middle series in a 9-game road trip that started for the Cubs in Anaheim and ends in Colorado, so, who knows? Maybe the Giants will be catch their mediocre pitching at a great time. There’s still some excitement left in the season for us to wring out. Has Luis Matos turned a corner? Casey Schmitt is slashing .250/.329/.500 in August (76 PA). Can he finish off the month (forget the season for the moment) on this tremendous high note? On that note, Willy Adames is slashing .238/.338/.508 since the All-Star break (145 PA) with 10 home runs and a 2:1 strikeouts to walk ratio. This is the borderline All-Star player the Giants signed in the offseason, and until Rafael Devers goes on a tear and Matt Chapman’s finger finishes healing, he might have to be the one who carries the lineup with the others mentioned being support.
Then there’s Heliot Ramos, who has lost all of his power the past couple of months but had the game-winning hit in Sunday’s finale against the Brewers. It sure would be great if that was the start of a real roll. Finally, might tonight’s game be Justin Verlander’s final start in a Giants’ uniform? There remains a slim chance that the team could place him on waivers and he’d still be able to join a playoff team before the September 1st roster cutoff.
There’s also the fun of the Giants playing spoilers. The Cubs are comfortably seated in the Wild Card division, but a sweep bumps them out of that #1 Wild Card spot and pushes them farther behind the Brewers, which the Cubs have gained ground on recently with an 8-2 spurt. They’re 5.5 games back of the division, too. Sure would be a shame if the Giants of all teams were a problem for them…
Series overview
Who: Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Tuesday at 6:45pm, Wednesday at 6:45pm, Thursday at 12:45pm (all times PT)
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Tuesday: Matthew Boyd (LHP 12-6, 2.61 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (RHP 1-10, 4.64 ERA)
Wednesday: Colin Rea (RHP 10-5, 3.96 ERA) vs. Carson Whisenhunt (LHP 1-1, 4.91 ERA)
Thursday: Shota Imanaga (LHP 8-6, 3.03 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (RHP 12-9, 3.13 ERA)
Where they stand
Cubs: 76-55, 2nd in NL Central; #1 NL Wild Card, 5.5 GB NLC
Giants: 63-68, 4th in NL West; 7.0 GB WC, 11.0 GB NLW
Prediction time
Well, last time out I said that the Giants would not get swept in Milwaukee, but I still didn’t predict that they’d win the series. So, to make up for that, I’ll predict the Giants sweep this one.
Category: General Sports
