ESPN Matchup Predictor picks Tennessee Football’s wins and losses game by game

ESPN analytics and the ESPN Matchup Predictor have Tennessee Football going 9-3 this season, giving the Vols a greater than a 50% chance to win every game except Georgia, Alabama and Florida.

Here’s the game-by-game percentages for Tennessee, as the Vols look to return to the College Football Playoff for a second straight season:

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Tennessee 88.6% chance to beat Syracuse

Tennessee opens the season against Syracuse on Saturday in the Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kickoff is scheduled for Noon Eastern Time on ABC. Tennessee is 3-0 all time against Syracuse in football, beating the Orange 18-12 in the Gator Bowl in December 1966, then winning 34-33 at Syracuse to start the 1998 season and 33-9 in Knoxville in September 2001.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Tennessee 99.0% chance to beat ETSU

Tennessee hosts ETSU in the home opener at Neyland Stadium in September 6, a 3:30 ET start on ESPN+ and SEC Network+. faced East Tennessee State just once, beating the Bucs 59-3 at Neyland Stadium on September 8, 2018. ETUS was coached by former Tennessee offensive coordinator Randy Sanders at the time. Sanders went 26-16 in four seasons at ETSU and retired after leading the Bucs to an 11-2 season in 2021, including a trip to the FCS quarterfinals. ETSU went 7-5 last season and are coached by Will Healy, the former Charlotte and Austin Peay head coach.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Georgia 59.3% to beat Tennessee

Georgia is Tennessee’s SEC opener on September 13, a 3:30 p.m. ET start on ABC. The Vols and Bulldogs played in November the last four years and in October in 2019 and 2020. Georgia has won eight straight in the series, dating back to the Josh Dobbs–Jauan Jennings Hail Mary to win at Georgia in 2016.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Tennessee 98.1% chance to beat UAB

Tennessee hosts UAB on September 20 in a 12:45 p.m. ET start on SEC Network. The Vols are 5-0 against UAB in a series that dates back to November 1998. The Vols have won the five games with an average margin of victory of 17.8 points. The last meeting was a 30-7 Tennessee win in November 2019.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Tennessee 80.3% chance to beat Mississippi State

Tennessee goes to Mississippi State on September 27, which kickoff currently in the SEC’s flex window, meaning either between 3:30-4 p.m. ET or 6-8 p.m. ET. The Vols beat Mississippi State 33-14 at Neyland Stadium last November, the first meeting between the two teams since 2019. Tennessee hasn’t played in Starkville since a 41-31 loss in 2012 and hasn’t won on the road at Davis Wade Stadium since 2007 (33-21).

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Tennessee 76.6% chance to beat Arkansas

Tennessee hosts Arkansas on October 11 in another flex kickoff window. The Razorbacks upset Tennessee 19-14 in Fayetteville last season. Arkansas won 24-20 in its last appearance at Neyland Stadium, in October 2015.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Alabama 68.4% chance to beat Tennessee

Tennessee goes to Alabama on October 18 for the annual Third Saturday in October Rivalry. The Vols have won two of the last three, beating the Crimson Tide 24-17 at Neyland Stadium last season and 52-49 in Knoxville in 2022.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Tennessee 74.8% chance to beat Kentucky

Tennessee goes back to Kroger Field in Lexington on October 25 with the game being in the night kickoff window. The Vols are looking for a third straight road win over Kentucky during the Josh Heupel era, including a 45-42 at Kentucky in November 2021 and 33-27 road win in October 2023.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Tennessee 73.7% chance to beat Oklahoma

Tennessee hosts Oklahoma on November 1 in another flex kickoff window. The Vols went to Oklahoma and won 25-15 in the Sooners’ first SEC game. It was the first win over Oklahoma for Tennessee since 1939, after the Sooners won three straight (1968, 2014 and 2015).

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Tennessee99.0% chance to beat New Mexico State

The November 15 game will be the first meeting between the two teams and will be Homecoming Weekend for the Vols, as well as Salute to Service Weekend. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network. New Mexico State went 3-9 last season with wins over Southeast Missouri State, Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee State.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Florida 51.5% chance to beat Tennessee

Tennessee goes Florida on November 22, the first game agains the Gators in November in program history. Kickoff is currently in the flex window. The 2020 game was played in December 5 in Knoxville in the COVID-altered season and the 2001 game was moved to December 1 after the terrorist attacks on September 11 postponed the originally scheduled game.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Tennessee 85.2% chance to beat Vanderbilt

Tennessee ends the regular-season schedule on November 29 with Senior Day against Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium. The Vols were looking a seventh straight win in the annual in-state series, which dates back to 1892.