These games will define the Florida Gators’ regular season

The Florida Gators’ 2025 football schedule might very well end up being college football’s most challenging. UF faces seven teams in the preseason AP Top 25 and four in the Top 10, meets five ranked opponents away from home and has preseason No. 1 Texas on the schedule.

So in a nutshell, every game of this rugged slate for the orange and blue is important. But some will define the regular season and how we all view it more than others. Today, I’ve highlighted the five UF games I believe will tell us the most about Bill Napier’s team and how it will finish. Basic math tells us a few great matchups didn’t make my cut and thus some [or many] of you will disagree with these choices.

But enough chit-chat, let’s get started.

At Miami Hurricanes

WHEN: Sept. 20
WHERE: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
WHY THIS GAME MEANS SO MUCH: Yes, these two are bitter in-state rivals even though they don’t play annually. Yes, it has been a back-and-forth series historically [the ‘Canes lead the all-time series 30-27]. Yes, Miami blasted the Gators last year in The Swamp. And all of that matters to a degree. But to me, this is one of the Gators’ biggest season-defining games not only because of who the opponent is, but because of where it sits on the schedule—Game 4.

Some of you might be surprised I picked this game over UF’s matchup the week prior at LSU’s Tiger Stadium. That is, after all, the Florida Gators’ first really big test and it’s also a league game. But a Week-3 loss to LSU wouldn’t hurt Florida that much, in terms of ranking, in terms of its ability to make the College Football Playoff, or even psychologically. Tiger Stadium is Tiger Stadium and LSU likely will be favored. Also, LSU plays Clemson in Week 1. So it will be more battle-tested than UF.

Florida fans might expect UF to win in Baton Rouge, but most of the college football world won’t. Also, in terms of league play, while winning a conference is wonderful, it certainly doesn’t mean as much as it did even five years ago. The bigger goal is to make the playoff. That’s what it’s all about in 2025. People are more likely to remember that than anything else.

Miami feels like a must-win game

Additionally, I believe UF could and would recover much easier psychologically after a loss to LSU than a loss to Miami. Win or lose in Baton Rouge, that game at Miami is huge from numerous aspects.

If UF beats LSU and then Miami to improve to 4-0 entering the UF-Texas game, the Gators would be sky high. Even if the Gators fall to LSU but turn around and beat the ‘Canes, I think their heads would be in the right place as they prepare for the Longhorns.

At 4-0, a playoff spot feels realistic. At 3-1 with a loss to LSU and then a win at Miami and you’ve got your edge back with Texas looming. Lose vs. the ‘Canes and fall to 3-1 and doubt creeps in. Lose vs. the ‘Canes and fall to 2-2 entering the Texas and Texas A&M stretch and just like that the Gators’ season could be on the brink.

Again, my gut says it would be far more difficult to recover from another loss to Miami than to LSU. The ‘Canes kicked Florida’s tails in 2024. So the Gators will be focused and out to prove it’s not the same Florida team in 2025. If the Gators lose in Baton Rouge, they’re right back at it the following Saturday. If they fall to Miami, they have an off week to think about losing again to the ‘Canes. It would be tough to stomach for many.

Home: Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns

WHEN: Oct. 4
WHERE: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville.
WHY THIS GAME MEANS SO MUCH: It Texas beats Ohio State in Week 1, it will be ranked No. 1 when it arrives in Gainesville. The Longhorns are the SEC media’s pick to win the league and many believe one of the two of three favorites to claim the national championship.

Texas humbled Florida last season. The Gators didn’t have injured quarterback DJ Lagway for thagt contest and were clobbered in Austin. A year later, this has the potential to be a program-defining game for Napier and Co. The Horns are loaded, but UF’s roster is the best it has been since 2020.

Texas might be No. 1 when it faces the Florida Gators

And … it’s in The Swamp.

If the Florida Gators enters this game at 4-0 or 3-1, it will have an opportunity to firmly establish itself as a legit CFP contender. If the Gators are 2-2 and win, it would right the ship and keep them in the playoff hunt. Remember, a 9-3 UF team might get in with this schedule. If UF is 4-0, a loss wouldn’t kill the season. Same for if UF is 3-1 entering the game. But if a 2-2 Gators team drops a third game, then the potential for the wheels to come off enters the equation.

On top of everything else, this is a measuring stick game. How much progress has UF truly made under Napier? This will be a day we learn much about the status of the program.

At Texas A&M Aggies

WHEN: Oct. 11
WHERE: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
WHY THIS GAME MEANS SO MUCH: No matter how you look at this one, this is huge—even though it’s a game very few right now seem to be talking about. And that’s one more thing that makes it dangerous. Let’s take a look at what this game would mean to Florida based on several scenarios entering the trip to Kyle Field.

With a win at TAMU …

—Entering 5-0: UF probably moves to No. 1 in the rankings and might only need to go 3-3 down the stretch to make the CFP. UF would have road wins at LSU, Miami and Texas A&M and a win at home over preseason No. 1 Texas.

—Entering 4-1: Would finish ultra-tough four-game stretch 3-1. Gators would be in the Top 10 and a favorite to make the CFP.

—Entering 3-2: Would have split the LSU-Miami-Texas-TAMU stretch and have momentum entering the back half of the season. CFP would still be in its sights.

Entering 2-3: Season-saver.

The UF-TAMU game is more important than many may think

With a loss at TAMU …

—Entering 5-0: Disappointing but not a killer.

—Entering 4-1: Not ideal but a 2-2 split in the four big games isn’t bad and keeps CPH hopes alive.

—Entering 3-2: Zero margin for error with the Georgia game and a road trip to Ole Miss looming.

—Entering 2-3: Start your hot seat chatter.

The Aggies aren’t getting a ton of preseason love, but might be a sleeper pick to finish in the top 1/4 of the SEC. TAMU should be solid in the run game with All-SEC performer Le’Veon Moss back, likely will boast a good offensive line and returning QB Marcel Reed has potential. But the Aggies are replacing a lot on the defensive line. Texas A&M get lightly regarded Mississippi State the Saturday before UF comes to town while the Gators play Texas the same day.

In Jacksonville vs. Georgia Bulldogs

WHEN: Nov. 1
WHERE: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Fla.
WHY THIS GAME MEANS SO MUCH: You know that old saying, “To beat the best, you have to beat the best” — well, it applies here. Over the past handful of seasons, Georgia has set the standard in the SEC. Meanwhile, the Dawgs have won four straight and seven of eight over the Gators. And Napier is 0-3 against Georgia.

The Gators were competitive against Georgia last season and led when Lagway was lost for an injury in the second quarter. Do they win if he played the full game? We’ll never know. The record books still show it as a loss. That said, UF was very much in that game with a walk-on at QB down the stretch.

The Gators need to turn the momentum in the Georgia series

With a roster that many think will be improved in 2025 and hopefully Lagway at 100 percent, the Gators absolutely should have a chance in Jacksonville. On paper, Georgia doesn’t look like it will be as strong on offense as it has been in recent years. But on defense, the Dawgs’ have four first-team preseason All-SEC picks.

No matter where UF sits coming into the Cocktail Party, a win would be huge. That’s how much it means to beat Georgia. If Florida is in the CFP picture, the Gators’ resume would get a big boost. If UF struggles in the first half of the season, this could give it a much-needed shot in the arm for the back half.

Meanwhile, if Georgia hands Florida its first or second loss on the season, a CFP spot is still very much within reach. If its loss No. 3, UF would have to win out to have a chance. If it’s loss No. 4 or worse, the questions that popped up early last season will rear their head again.

Home: Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers

WHEN: Nov. 22
WHERE: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville.
WHY THIS GAME MEANS SO MUCH: By the time we get this deep into the season, the game against Ole Miss the week prior might be huge for UF. In fact, I suspect it will be. But either way, what happens Nov. 22 in Gainesville could be critical.

A win over the Vols could be the final big ‘W” on Florida’s resume. It might be a bounce-back win after a loss at Ole Miss that gets UF one step closer to making the playoff. It potentially will provide Napier and Co. momentum heading into the regular-season finale vs. FSU — and the playoffs after that. Or a victory could simply be what salvages a season and offers hope that the full program rebuild is one step closer to reality.

The Tennessee games always means a lot; this season is no different

But if UF is cruising into the CFP, it wouldn’t want to lose any momentum by falling to a rival in The Swamp. If the Gators beat Ole Miss but have two losses entering this game, then a third loss vs. Tennessee at home could really hurt. While many feel like 9-3 Florida would have a strong CFP argument, it will depend on where the losses are and against whom.

There are just so many possible scenarios that will take shape in the coming months. Regardless, this will be a big game whether Florida is 9-1 or 5-4.