Oklahoma Sooners game by game picks from ESPN Matchup Predictor

The Oklahoma Sooners will begin the 2025 college football season next Saturday when they welcome the Illinois State Redbirds to Norman for a primetime kickoff. 2025 presents a huge opportunity for the Sooners to get back on the winning track. OU has a tough slate, but national analysts are predicting a much improved season for the Sooners.

After their week one game, Oklahoma will take on the Michigan Wolverines in a primetime matchup that will be the first of several marquee matchups this season. The Sooners will continue their nonconference slate on the road against Temple next week and then will open SEC play against the Auburn Tigers in Norman. The Sooners will have their first bye week of the season and will wrap up the nonconference schedule against Kent State before taking on the Texas Longhorns in the Red River Showdown.

The Sooners have a great opportunity to start the season strong before they face Texas, and then close the season with a challenging seven-game stretch. While the Sooners have been projected to be a surprise playoff team, the computers aren't as high on the Sooners. Here's a look at how the ESPN matchup predictor sees the Oklahoma Sooners' 2025 season.

August 30 vs. Illinois State Redbirds

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 98.4%

Projected running record: 1-0

Sept. 6 vs. Michigan Wolverines

Predicted Winner: Michigan

Sooners Win Probability: 48.2%

Projected running record: 1-1

Sept. 13 at Temple Owls

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 93.4%

Projected running record: 2-1

Sept. 20 vs. Auburn Tigers

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 58.4%

Projected running record: 3-1

Oct. 4 vs. Kent State Golden Flashes

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 98.5%

Projected running record:  4-1

Oct. 11 vs. Texas Longhorns

Predicted Winner: Texas

Sooners Win Probability: 15.5%

Projected running record: 4-2

Oct. 18 at South Carolina Gamecocks

Predicted Winner: South Carolina

Sooners Win Probability: 29.2%

Projected running record: 4-3

Oct. 25 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Predicted Winner: Ole Miss

Sooners Win Probability: 43.7%

Projected running record: 4-4

Nov. 1 at Tennessee Volunteers

Predicted Winner: Tennessee

Sooners Win Probability: 26.3%

Projected running record: 4-5

Nov. 8: Bye Week

Sitting at 4-5 with three games to go is a far cry from what's expected at Oklahoma. The Sooners would have to go 3-0 against Alabama, Missouri, and LSU to finish with a winning record and 2-1 just to reach a bowl game. But a winning season or just making a bowl game isn't enough at the University of Oklahoma.

Nov. 15 at Alabama Crimson Tide

Predicted Winner: Alabama

Sooners Win Probability: 20.1%

Projected running record: 4-6

Nov. 22 vs. Missouri Tigers

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 58.1%

Projected running record: 5-6

Nov. 29 vs. LSU Tigers

Predicted Winner: LSU

Sooners Win Probability: 45.1%

Projected running record: 5-7

Oklahoma goes 5-7?

This seems really unlikely, but it is notable. So much of what goes into the matchup predictor is based on the ESPN Football Power Index and SP+ ratings. All of it takes into account roster construction, recruiting, and recent success. The Oklahoma Sooners haven't fed the computers great data, especially in the "recent success" metric with two 6-7 seasons under Brent Venables.

If Oklahoma goes 5-7 in 2025, you can bet there will be significant changes. However, I'm not buying it. The Sooners are a much better team than they were a year ago and have a roster much more prepared to compete against a rigorous schedule than they did last year.

This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Oklahoma Sooners preseason picks from the ESPN Matchup Predictor