Let's look under the hood and see why the Packers have value in various markets.
While handicapping the vast array of NFL futures offered in the betting market, many Green Bay Packers options stand out as potentially valuable long-shot opportunities to consider.
I always seek to understand a team's schedule and outlook for the next few games before betting futures on them because these markets remain available all season, and timing the bets is critical to maximize value and bankroll.
The most notable schedule advantage for the Green Bay Packers is that they are favored in their first eight weeks to start the season. If the pricing reflects the results, the Packers will appear as a juggernaut by midseason, and holding futures tickets would likely yield significant value.
Consider betting any or all of these Green Bay Packers futures. I suggest dividing one to three units of bankroll across these bets.
Here are four Packers futures bets that I like:
Last remaining undefeated team (13-1)
With the impetus to target the Packers in NFL futures bets due to their early schedule, let’s start with them as the last remaining undefeated team.
The toughest obstacle is Week 1, when they are 1.5-point home favorites against the Detroit Lions. However, I consider this an early-season gift from the schedule makers. The Lions will be adjusting to new coordinators on both sides of the ball and traveling to Lambeau Field, one of the NFL’s top home-field advantages. In their last 16 home games, spanning the two seasons of the Jordan Love era, the Packers have performed with a 5.41 average margin above the expected spread. If we wait until after an expected Week 1 win, the value of this bet will plummet.
Some of the Packers early road games include matchups at Cleveland, at Arizona and a Jordan Love versus Aaron Rodgers showdown at Pittsburgh in Week 7. Let’s back the Packers to shine brightly early and often.
Jordan Love to win MVP (25-1)
The recent news on Love is about an injury to his left hand that requires a minor surgical procedure. Fortunately, Love is expected to return for the season's start, and the injury is to his non-throwing hand. This could create value in Love for MVP.
When speculating on how the injury might affect his play, sharp NFL analysts suggest his non-throwing hand is primarily used in weak-side run plays. The Packers and Josh Jacobs may run right less frequently early in the season, as these plays require Love to hand off using his surgically repaired left hand. How will the Packers adjust? Some of these plays will still occur, but likely at a reduced volume. Expect an increase in halfback pitches and gadget wide receiver end-arounds in that direction instead of direct handoffs and alongside a higher volume of throws. Short throws, often used as supplemental run plays, should accumulate yards and boost completion percentage. With a loaded Packers wide receiver room, including first-round draft pick Matthew Golden, Love has plenty of options.
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Matt LaFleur, an offensive-minded coach who has called plays since taking the job in 2019, has already guided a starting quarterback to two MVP campaigns (Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021). Now in his third full season with Love, this could be a breakout year. Combining the favorable early schedule, the talent surrounding Love and the non-throwing hand injury potentially leading to more short throws, Love has a chance to dominate statistically and climb the MVP ranks.
Love is currently ninth in MVP odds at 25-1. Four players ahead of him face off in Week 1: Josh Allen versus Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes versus Justin Herbert. Two of those four will take an early loss, and CJ Stroud and the Texans are road underdogs in Week 1. The market could shift quickly, so consider buying in now and reassessing later.
Matt LaFleur to win Coach of the Year (20-1)
LaFleur has been sensational since entering the league. He has coached the Packers for six seasons, securing five playoff berths. His record stands at 67-33, translating to a 67% win rate over exactly 100 games. Additionally, he boasts a 57% win rate against the spread, consistently surpassing market expectations. This year, the Packers could take a significant leap and become a dominant squad.
The Coach of the Year award typically favors new head coaches who lead their teams to 11 or more wins. However, the prospects for new coaches in new roles this season seem limited. Rival candidates include Mike Vrabel with the New England Patriots, Ben Johnson with the Chicago Bears, Liam Coen with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Aaron Glenn with the New York Jets, Brian Schottenheimer with the Dallas Cowboys and Pete Carroll with the Las Vegas Raiders.
This market can be reassessed around Week 9 if the Packers start strong. Several candidates may fall off, and holding a 20-1 ticket could offer arbitrage opportunities against a contending coach. LaFleur is due recognition, and given the team’s balance, his candidacy may receive significant credit if the Packers win the NFC North.
Packers win total: over 9.5 games (-120)
The final must-hit market for me with the Green Bay Packers is their season wins total. Priced at an over/under of 9.5, the over is a clear choice. As a gambling math enthusiast, I note that the season wins market has the lowest hold by sportsbooks, meaning the rake rate is the lowest compared to other bets. Holding a ticket here, while not offering a long-shot payout, provides the largest edge against the betting market.
This could be straightforward if the Packers dominate their first eight weeks as betting favorites. Even if they don’t go 8-0, I believe they have a high likelihood of winning five or six of those games. At that point, the market will still be available, but the prices will shift. Options will include riding it out, doubling down or playing it back to create a middle. I’ve set a reminder to revisit the Packers’ status at midseason and will write up how to manage this ticket.
For now, I’m taking the over on a team favored for eight straight games, coached by someone with a 67% win rate and featuring a top-10 MVP candidate. I’m fully committed to the Packers this year, and the season win total is a foundational bet for that approach.
Category: General Sports
